The Demographic Transition

The demographic transition is a FOUR-stage pattern of change in birth rates and death rates that takes place as a country is transformed from undeveloped to develop. It leads to a decline in population growth. In a demographic transition, the following four stages occur:

(1)   Initially, countries have a stable population with a high birthrate and a high death rate. Death rates often vary because of famine and epidemic disease.

(2)   Improved economic and social conditions (control of disease and increased food availability) bring about a period of rapid population growth as death rates fall. Birthrates remain high.

(3)   As countries become industrialized, the birthrates begin to drop because people desire smaller families and use contraceptives.

(4)   Eventually, birthrates and death rates again become balanced, with low birthrates and low death rates.     

This is a very comfortable model because it suggests that if a country can become industrialized, then social, political, and economic processes will naturally cause its population to stabilize.

As a result of a common desire among parents for large families, as in the case of Bangladesh, the growth rate is so high that it outpaces increases in economic development. The key point here is that the demographic transition will only take place if parents come to believe that a small family size is to their benefit.